Lockdown and then? Less office – more online.

I am not sure the world economy will see such dramatic change as many expect due to Covid 19. But the pandemic will sure be the trigger for a long period of changes in business life. Environmental concerns together with the Covid 19 experience will start a rethinking of old truths regarding production and distribution of products. And thereby how we do business. It may not be as obvious that it is cheaper to produce in China than in Europe if applying new risk models for “just in time” and “comparative advantages”.

Even without Corona a change of economy, change of work life, employment models etc have for some years been waiting behind the corner to take advantage of the new IT environment (5G is one) and combine it with a new and still developing approach to work, where to work and how to be paid for it. 

Will the world economy collapse? Do we need to see a dramatic change in living standard? No, I don’t think so, neither due to Corona, nor due to environmental concerns. But yes, we will see changes but rather how to measure living standard than how to experience it. But if the world economy collapse? It will not, it will change and as all changes it will temporarily cause problems but also ignite new thinking – and this is exactly what is needed to adapt to the time we are already in. This is why I see the present pandemic as a trigger for a change, not the driver for it. 

Changes will come – 2020 Contract Management goes online! 2020 is the year we will realize 80-90% of the work can be done online, little travel but the whole world’s expertise available at your PC/Smartphone. All tools are there, but of course, human meetings cannot be totally replaced by faces on monitors. We need to meet face-to-face to understand the psychology of business. Most of the Contract Management, however, requires physical meetings only occasionally. 

And the Stock Markets, up or down?
Today’s Stock Market is not only driven by fundamentals, it is an AI controlled play where the overall moves in the day trading are rather a function of the big “Market Makers” co-operative and controlled efforts rather than the underlying values. If trading or even investing in the stock market can produce a higher revenue than other investments, the general move will be up. This is valid as long as we have no other view on what is profitable than the revenue measured in money. Environmental concerns will perhaps cause changes to this thinking. 

As we are entering a new era(?), old definitions may not be relevant any more. It would be very exciting to hear our economic scientists discuss and explain the world economy after Covid 19 and into the next decades.